Where now for South Africa?

With the ANC losing its majority and a coalition deal with the predominantly white Democratic Alliance Bob Newland explores the unchartered waters

May 29^th elections resulted not unexpectedly in a watershed for post-apartheid South Africa.  For the first time since the end of the apartheid regime the ANC failed to obtain 50% of the vote and was forced into coalition talks.

This was a difficult process with only a few days to deliver a result.  Second in the polls, albeit a long way behind the ANC, came the Democratic Alliance (DA) inheritors of the mantle of the National Party the ruling party and architect of the apartheid system. 

Sadly, corrupt ex-President Zuma’s MK Party, stealing the name of uMkhonto we Sizwe the ANC’s armed wing in the fight against apartheid, polled substantially on a tribal basis in Kwa Zulu Natal (KZN).  With the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) also getting sizeable support but demanding, along with MK Party, the removal of Cyril Ramaphosa as a condition of participation in any coalition the options before the ANC were limited.

The ANC’s partners in its tripartite structure, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) argued for a minority ANC government supported by other parties on a policy by policy basis.  However, the majority of the ANC Executive opted for the formation of a controversial  Government of National Unity (GNU) along with the DA, Zulu tribalist Inkata Freedom Party (IFP) and a small anti-immigration party the Patriotic Alliance.

Much of the ANC’s troubles arise from their failure to overcome the legacy of apartheid.  White privilege abounds and unemployment is catastrophic. This, compounded by the ANC’s association with the corruption of former President Zuma, led to serious disenchantment. Cyril Ramaphosa came to power with a commitment to end corruption and to address the failure to deliver effective services in energy, water and education.  For much of the past few years of his regime he has been fighting against a majority within the ANC Executive largely tainted by or associated with that corruption. Recently, some headway has been achieved with the removal and prosecution of key figures and the recovery of large amounts of the embezzled funds.  This all came too late to save the ANC’s majority. 

It is hard to foresee how long the present GNU can survive the deep contradictions inherent in it.  In the first instance it is bound together by a commitment to address corruption.  This may buy it time.  Zuma has yet to face the courts on the many counts of corruption with which he is charged.  Conviction and a long prison sentence may end his career although, like Trump, he claims these charges are all political and has succeeded in winning a degree of popular support. 

Meanwhile COSATU and the SACP are considering their position in the ANC. For many of us who were engaged in the struggle against colonialism in the 1960s and 70s this raises an interesting conversation.  

Back in those heady days the major national liberation movements were defended against narrow sectarian critics by many of us as a necessary alliance between the masses, often peasants, the working class and the national bourgeoisie to overthrow the colonial powers. It was considered that only then would the conditions be created for class struggle to overcome capitalism which was imposed and controlled by the colonial settlers or facilitated by puppet regimes acting on behalf of various imperialist powers.

It was assumed that after national liberation these movements would necessarily break up with the different class forces within them forming parties to represent their specific interests.  In few countries, particularly in Africa, did this come about.  It is exactly that debate which was reignited at the SACP 14th Congress in 2017 where a majority supported the idea of the SACP withdrawing from the ANC and standing in elections in its own right.

This process was put on hold by the belief that it was necessary to support Ramaphosa against Zuma for leadership of the ANC, and consequently as President, in order to overcome the crisis brought about by corruption and state capture.  Now the GNU must put to the fore proposals and action to challenge the twin evils of corruption and crime.

That historical debate is now clearly back on the agenda and the SACP is holding a Special National Congress later this year. It is likely that whatever stance the SACP takes, COSATU will follow a similar course.   Before the Congress and fuelling conversations within the country as a whole will be an assessment of the extent that the GNU has developed a programme to address the crisis of unemployment, poverty eradication and a radical reduction of income, wealth, special and gender inequalities.

Time will tell where these conversations lead but one thing is for sure, the ANC can no longer presume it has a monopoly of power.