Although the Tories were vanquished in Wales this must not disguise the huge challenges ahead says Peter Rowlands
The election result in Wales gave little to celebrate, apart from there being no Tory MPs left and Labour with 27 out of 32 MPs, a result even more disproportionate than the overall UK result, and making an excellent case for PR.
The result in Wales was the second worst on a national/regional basis in the UK, with an overall fall of 4% from the 2019 election, with London the worst at 5%, and 2.5% in the North West. Everywhere else showed an increase in the Labour vote, but not by much, except in Scotland. The worst results for Labour were where there were regional Labour governments, which could be blamed for the local situation. In Wales Reform did well at 17%, particularly in the old coal valleys in South Wales, as they did in similar areas in England (even more so than in Wales), in the Midlands and the North-East. There were also substantial increases for Plaid Cymru and the Greens.
But there were reasons particular to Wales for Labour’s poor performance there. The main one was the leadership upheaval following the resignation, as a prelude to retirement, of Mark Drakeford in March and the appointment of Vaughan Gething as the new leader, following a membership election. Gething was more representative of the right wing majority in the Senedd (Welsh Assembly) than Drakeford, a left winger chosen for his ability, had been, and the effective ending of the alliance with Plaid Cymru was one major consequence. However, it was the acceptance by Gething of a large donation from a company owned by someone who had committed environmental offences, that following widespread publicity and criticism proved unacceptable to a majority of Labour members of the Senedd. He was replaced by Elenud Morgan in July, without an election as she was the only nomination. Her appointment is thought by some to be the best chance of dealing with the factionalism intensified by the leadership saga, as well as being a woman, which Labour desperately needs in leadership positions. The left favours more devolution but fears that Labour in Wales becomes no more than a willing adjunct of Starmer’s Labour at Westminster. That could encourage Plaid, as it did the SNP in Scotland, although nationalism is weaker in Wales than there.
But policy issues were also detrimental, the most prominent being the 20 mph speed limit, which although arguably correct and now showing positive results was very badly implemented locally, causing much resentment. Continuing problems with waiting times for NHS operations and poor reading standards were other issues.
Port Talbot
The closure of most of the Indian-owned steel industry at Port Talbot, and likely similar moves by the Chinese owners at Scunthorpe could see the disappearance of primary steel production in the UK. Nationalisation is probably the only alternative, unlikely to be favoured by the Starmer government, despite their willingness to provide up to £2.5 bn to retain the industry, although at Port Talbot a smaller and greener production of steel via an electric arc furnace has been agreed, based on recycled steel and requiring a much smaller workforce than previously. Most of the workforce at Port Talbot have accepted relatively good redundancy terms, improved by Labour, but despite strong pressure from unions through their “Just Transition” campaign and government at various levels it is difficult to see that much more could have been achieved. Talks are still continuing between owners Tata and Unite over production at Port Talbot, but despite Unite’s militant tone achieving more is questionable, at least without further government support. The issue certainly makes a good case for strategically important industries to be state owned. In Wales the loss of 2000 or more jobs will inevitably have a depressing effect on the employment situation in the area.
Although many Labour activists have left the party recently in Wales, as they have elsewhere, the Welsh Labour Grassroots organisation is active and achieved better results in the recent internal Labour elections than in most of the rest of the UK.
In the next Senedd elections in 2026, there will be a large expansion in the number of seats, from 60 to 96, and a new electoral system, based on numbered lists in 16 constituencies, formed by a merger of two of the new parliamentary constituencies, each returning six members. This could be a great opportunity for the left, as of course it will be for other parties and indeed for the Labour right, but with 36 new MSs there is much to play for. The danger is of Reform winning seats, which their predecessor UKIP did in 2016, and which their recent parliamentary performance indicates they might do, as Labour’s indicates it would fail to achieve a majority. This would probably mean a coalition with Plaid Cymru, which some on the left would welcome as a means of resisting domination by Starmer’s Labour and promoting further devolution.
It has been a turbulent political year in Wales, including three different leaders. Whether the new leadership and the results of the forthcoming election enable progress to be made on devolution and radical reform remains to be seen.