Frank Hansen looks at the growing threat of ultra right populist nationalism including Trumpism and how to stop it
The re-election of Trump indicates that right-wing populism is hardly a passing phenomenon. The 21st Century heralded the rapid rise of populist ideas, parties and leaders across Europe and beyond. With the collapse of the USSR, capital went global, and Fukuyama predicted the “end of history” – an age of expanding liberal democracy. In fact, the opposite is happening – an era of unrestrained capitalism that is undermining democracy. In the wake of the 2007/8 financial crash, the centre appears to be shrinking, and nationalism and authoritarianism are on the rise. The contradictions of neoliberal capitalism are driving a significant political reconfiguration at the national level and bringing into question the viability of international institutions established to underpin stability after WW2.
Consider how politics have changed in the past eight years in the US and the UK. The Republican Party, a mainstay of the US democratic system, has been taken over by Trump and his MAGA, populist movement, (an electoral coalition of the rich and the disaffected, whose leader promotes the interest of oligarchs). The Tory Party has experienced a cataclysmic split. A rift over EU membership led to Brexit, which precipitated the fall of Cameron, followed by the ousting of May. Johnson then won a majority based on his populist Brexit and “Levelling Up” agendas, appealing not only to the Tory right, but to the dispossessed and alienated voters of the Red Wall. His regime was chaotic and he was eventually ditched as an electoral liability, only to be replaced by the even more right-wing and chaotic Truss. She was soon overthrown by a revolt in the financial markets. Tory grandees and the City worked to install their own austerity/stability team of Sunak/Hunt. Rather than democracy in action, one could almost describe this as a bankers’ “mini-coup”.
Two of the world’s oldest, most powerful, imperialist parties have suddenly changed and are moving rightwards before our very eyes. Under Trump the populist metamorphosis is virtually complete. Meanwhile, the Tories with six leaders and five prime ministers in eight years, continue to move in a populist direction under Badenoch. Farage is hot on their heels and aims to do a Trump by replacing or merging with the Tories. It’s certainly possible that Labour could face a united populist party/coalition at the next election. After all, such collaboration, albeit informal, propelled Johnson to power.
The rise of populism takes many forms, which vary according to the political traditions of each country. Old conservative parties are moving to the right, new parties have emerged and “post fascist” parties have attempted to sanitise their image to gain power. Populist parties have already gained power and influence in government in Italy, Hungary, The Netherlands, Poland and other EU countries. Could the UK, France and Germany be next? At the same time more traditional fascist parties have been empowered by the racist narrative of the mainstream right and have taken to the streets, sparking riots and terror attacks on asylum seekers and ethnic minorities.
Populist parties and the extreme right share certain characteristics that hark back to 1930s fascist rhetoric and demagoguery. They offer simplistic “solutions” based on tradition, identity and the glorification of an idealised national culture. The main theme is opposition to immigration and asylum seekers, who supposedly introduce an “alien culture” and undermine “our way of life” denying “local people” opportunities in jobs, housing and so on. Xenophobia is usually supported by globalist conspiracy theories – that a “woke”, “liberal elite” (often a financial elite), is using mass immigration across the world to change society in their own interests. This is now common currency on the right. When May became PM she attacked “people in positions of power” who behave “as if they have more in common with international elites than people down the road”. The right and their media backers wage endless “culture wars” which polarise society, and distract from the real causes of people’s problems. The new right tend to agree on immigration and cultural threats, but not necessarily on economic issues. In the face of the cost of living crisis some are proposing more interventionist policies to garner votes from those most affected.
Populist ideology overlaps with fascism, but it would be wrong to conflate the two. Fascism in the 1930s was linked to the spread of communism, the loss of empire and economic crisis. It developed as a paramilitary force, particularly in Germany and Italy, to defeat the labour movement politically (National Socialism) and physically on the streets. As the crisis deepened it was backed by the ruling class as a means of resolving problems by “defeating socialism”. Given that the left today is probably weaker than it has been for 30 years, the “threat of communism” is hardly an issue and the crisis has developed mainly as a result of the contradictions of the system. The populist right tend to operate within mainstream politics and reject overt violence and a paramilitary approach. At the same time, their policies and tactics when in power are leading to the development of “illiberal democracy” and authoritarianism, as in Hungary. It is difficult to predict how this might evolve, but democracy is under severe attack even if via electoral politics.
The underlying cause of all of this is the domination of neoliberalism and the severe crises it has produced. Compared with the post-war era of regulated capitalism, the welfare state and public ownership, we are in a period characterised by the hegemony of finance capital and oligarchs and more protracted economic crises. Many of the post war, reformist gains of the labour movement have been reversed and resources re-appropriated by finance capital. There is greater inequality and new social divisions have emerged. Add to this the climate crisis and rising international tensions, with wars breaking out, not only in the “periphery”, but also in Europe, plus the mass migrations driven by these factors, then It is clear that the world is a more unstable and chaotic place.
Globalisation has undermined the labour movement internationally. A significant transfer of production to lower cost countries has caused the deindustrialisation of centres such as the Rust Belt and the Red Wall. In developed countries, the more integrated production has become globally the less stable it has been at the national level. Complex global supply chains have produced new divisions with less opportunities to develop skills within a unified factory system. The technological revolution has led to the expansion of creative activity, while others are cut off from these opportunities and forced to work in the gig economy on low wages and zero hours contracts. The overall impact has been an atomisation of the workforce and a massive reduction in the mechanisms for solidarity. Today UK trade union membership is around 6m, less than half of what it was in 1980. There has also been growing alienation from the political process, widespread apathy, a break up of traditional party loyalties and low turnouts. This provides the fertile soil in which populism is now thriving.
In the absence of an effective socialist alternative, that addresses the real interests of those most affected by delivering real change, national populism will continue its inexorable rise. The sad reality is that the degradation of liberal democracy has also been accompanied by the retreat of social democracy. In government Blair’s New Labour enthusiastically supported globalisation as an opportunity where there would be “no more boom and bust”. Some of the cuts of the Thatcher period were reversed, yet the general trend was towards financialisation and more power for the banks. Privatisation was extended through PFI and the commercialisation of services. Under Blair many more local services were outsourced via “partnership working” than the Tories managed to achieve through compulsory tendering. Much of the Left in Europe followed Blair’s lead – neoliberal, financial principles were enshrined in the EU’s Maastricht Treaty and remain unchallenged. New Labour’s optimism came crashing down with the banks in 2007/8. Brown may claim to have saved the world system, but the reality was a massive crisis that still reverberates today. Labour’s vote was already in decline and the party was soon out of office.
The return of Labour to government is, of course, to be welcomed and some positive changes are under way. But let’s not kid ourselves that there has been a massive victory and things will automatically be put right. Despite receiving only 33.7% of the vote, the vagaries of the electoral system delivered an historic parliamentary majority. This actually provides the possibility of implementing real reforms that can restore Labour’s base in the working class and turn the tide of national populism. However, is Starmer really up for rolling back neoliberalism? It hasn’t been a great start, but the battle is now on to ensure that this Labour government serves the interests of working people – that it defends democracy and enacts reform to shift power and resources downwards, rather than administering the system and its financial rules on behalf of the establishment.