With ham-fisted changes in party organization and by-election losses Trevor Fisher says Starmer needs to wise up
The resignation of Sue Gray was more than just an episode of factionalism in the leader’s office. Along with the unexplained quitting of the General Secretary, David Evans, there is little triumphalism in a regime which has seen the leader’s poll ratings drop 44% as autumn dawned. General Secretaries do not vanish after a General Election victory. Did he jump or was he pushed? And is the enhanced power of Morgan McSweeney more than a further rise of control freakery? Starmer has to restore his personal poll ratings. He is still in charge. But this continuing cannot be taken for granted. The fact that a Labour MP has been suspended for allegedly assaulting a citizen in a street brawl is an isolated incident, but given the scrutiny of parliamentary candidates and the loss of council seats since the election – particularly to Reform UK – these four months have been grim.
That Starmer is politically inexperienced is clear, and what experience he gained as DPP supremo rested on office politics. In 1997 Blair and Brown had limited government experience, but they had the ability to argue a case – Brown’s book on ILP leader Jimmy Maxton is still worth reading. Starmer remains an enigma and does not appear to have political antennae as shown by the Winter Fuel payment issue and still more the issue of sleaze.
Is he not aware of the golden rule “Never Complain, Never Explain”? Disraeli was and Harriet Harman has recently reminded Number 10 that to do so only digs the hole in the ground even deeper. Starmer is concerned at the effect on his family. But he is the one who gave his wife money for clothes, is accused of “passes for glasses” and used his son to defend that use of Lord Ali’s flat. The winter fuel payment has grabbed the headlines, and may still be subject to legal challenges, particularly if the government did not do an impact assessment. But this was not in the manifesto and with those policies that were it is not difficult to see ideas which obviously have not been critically thought through or discussed with people with expertise.
An empty school syndrome
The education “mission” is a case in point. Media have so far bought the manifesto commitment to employ 6,500 extra teachers, without realizing this does not match the teacher numbers shortfall. Michael Gove, who for all his faults knew how education works, pointed out there are 24,000 schools in England. So three quarters of schools would not see an extra teacher. Nor do we hear about shortage subjects, which clearly happen mainly in deprived areas. Teaching assistants are increasingly used as teachers, as trained teachers have quit. The shift of OFSTED reports from one word judgements to report cards makes no difference to teacher retention which is driven by random judgements, not how they are reported.
The VAT on private schools issue may end up in the courts, which is what happened to Gordon Brown. If so the outcome will be delayed and the money for employing the extra teachers will not appear. Delay might give the Education Secretary time to investigate the real problem facing schools – that too many new teachers quit after a few years in the job, particularly where specialist skills are in demand elsewhere – in subjects like maths and physics for example.
Teachers leaving rapidly is one aspect of a growing crisis where classrooms do not have either trained teachers or pupils enough to keep up momentum. The rise in exclusions and suspensions speaks to a crisis of alienated students, particularly since the pandemic, and its effects on families. During the pandemic students were banned from going to school and families were forced to home teach sometimes with computer programmes sometimes not. Now the line from the Department for Education (DFE) under Phillipson is that 100 per cent full time attendance is vital. Evidence that parents do not have automatic support for teachers is not hard to find, but there has been no change in the DfE position since Labour won the election despite a growing crisis of bad behavior driving teachers out of the classroom.
Control freaks not OK
While this was an example of a manifesto commitment not properly thought through, with no signs of expert input into the implementation of policy making for problems when operated, the internal organisation of the Party is posing increasing problems. Parliamentary selections were an issue and making the choice dependant on factional label for new selections was odious. Since the election evidence of a weeding process for local government has emerged, mirroring the last days of New Labour. This may be one reason for the poor local election results since July 4th. While many of the by- elections have been caused by councillors becoming MPs, the failure of Labour in most of the by-elections is ominous. Blair did lose support but took three years for his personal ratings to turn negative. Starmer has taken three months.
If readers are interested in the pattern of defeat, email me for a report on all the council by elections. Political parties who win a General Election normally do not lose large numbers of council seats in the weeks afterward.