Kabul Sandu says Modi is weakened but far from down
Narendra Modi is one of several strongmen currently seen around the globe, democratically elected, who then go on to flout democracy’s key parameters.
He has now been elected as Prime Minister of India for the third successive time.
Wherein lies his appeal?
He had been Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2002 till he became PM in 2014.
His nationalistic appeal has been to the Hindus who make up about 79% of the Indian population. Modi is steeped in the ideology of Hindu nationalism. Since childhood he was a member of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh -a right wing paramilitary organisation established in the 1920s along European Fascist lines. One of its members assassinated Gandhi in 1948. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) believe Hindus were downtrodden during Mughal and British rule. The BJP implicitly and explicitly promotes animosity towards minorities especially Muslims who are about 14% of the population.
Whilst he was Chief Minister of Gujarat rioting occurred in which organised Hindu mobs killed around 2000 Muslims. Modi is believed to have, at the very least, allowed the rioting to go on for several days before police action was enforced. Prompted by these events the US and the UK banned Modi from entry. The ban was only lifted when he became Prime Minister of India in 2014.
Modi’s increased profile in Gujarat propelled him to Prime Ministerial office. Now on the national stage he and his party continued discriminating against Muslims and attacking any opponents.
The Chief of Amnesty International India Branch said “the authorities have exploited and weaponised various financial and terrorism laws to systematically crackdown on human rights defenders, activists, critics, non-profit organisations, journalists, students, academics and political opponents”.
A few months before the June General Election the leader of the Aam Admi party, Arvind Kejriwal, was falsely arrested on corruption charges. Similarly Congress, the leading opposition party, had its bank account frozen thus hobbling its election campaigning.
The BBC India office was raided by police looking for tax irregularities. Other media outlets including the Indian film industry were harassed and cowed. Jawaharlal Nehru University is regarded by Modi and the BJP as a hotbed of opposition. Its students have been physically attacked on campus by BJP inspired thugs. Later when students tried to show a critical documentary about Modi their power was cut off!
The stoking of anti- Muslim feelings continued with them being referred to as “infiltrators” during the General Election. Muslims were supposed to be also waging a “love jihad” (love war) meaning Hindu girls were being lured into marriage to increase the Muslim population.
Yet despite the power of incumbency and the anti-democratic and Hindu chauvinistic actions outlined above Modi and the BJP “lost” the election. The party fell to 240 seats below the 272 required to be the majority party.
Modi is now dependent on a coalition with about 40 regional parties and he seems to have lost some prestige. Now the government is being referred to as the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) government, not the “Modi government” as in the past. His allies have to be appeased and rewarded to keep on side.
Hence billions of rupees given to Telugu Desam Party’s Andhra Pradesh state and to Maharashtra where Shiv Sena rules. These two parties bring the largest number of MPs to the BJP coalition.
However, it’s too early for democrats to think Modi’s autocratic rule is on the wane. The BJP’s national vote was only slightly down from the previous election. Moreover, although the BJP lost seats in its northern heartland it made gains in the South where it has traditionally been weak. There is no sign of the party edging Modi out of leadership. He is still the BJP’s superstar with great oratorical skill and clever political pragmatic nous.
Modi and the BJP continue their nationalistic fervour. An indication of this and a sign perhaps of confidence and adherence to a continuation of beating the nationalist drum, is the revival of a 10 year old charge of sedition against internationally renowned author Arundhati Roy. In essence she had dared to suggest independence for Kashmir. Without Modi’s approval this charge against Roy would never have been revived.
Modi may be down but he is not yet out.