Knife-edge but mayhem could result

In an imperfect US democracy Paul Garver looks ahead to and beyond the US Elections

One month before the November Presidential election, its outcome remains unpredictable. There are simply too many unknown variables.

The Harris -Walz Democratic ticket will surely win the national popular vote by a wide margin, as was also the case for Democrats in 2016 and 2020. Seven swing (or purple) states are hotly contested (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia). Both parties are focusing their advertising and personal campaign appearances on those “battleground” states, where the likely victory for either side will be slender.  Current polling in these states indicate a very tight race.

Michigan poses an especially difficult challenge for Harris-Walz. Michigan is home to a substantial Palestinian-American community, where the pro-Palestinian Uncommitted movement remains frustrated with the failure of Harris to make a decisive break with Biden’s unconditional military support for Netanyahu. Palestinian-American U S Congressperson Rashida Tlaib [representing the Detroit area] is the most visible political spokesperson for Palestinian rights. She supports Harris-Walz because Trump’s election would be even more catastrophic for Palestinians, but in a close election, abstention by campus activists and the Arab-American communities could swing Michigan to Trump.

Pro-Palestinian activists are still looking for some indication from Harris that she will pay more than lip service to curbing Israeli attacks that are killing civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. Responding to this danger, Senator Bernie Sanders and UAW President Shawn Fain, both strong advocates for embargoing U S offensive military weapons to Israel, a key demand of the Uncommitted movement, campaigned recently on the campus of Michigan State University. 

Both campaigns face serious challenges in the other swing states. A minority of the conservative Republican leaders who survived the MAGA takeover of the Republican Party support Harris.  Conversely, parts of the electorate that normally support Democrats in national elections appear to be wavering. Polling reported by the National Center for Working Class Politics indicates a yawning gender gap. Men of all educational levels and races are much more likely to support Trump than women with comparable demographics.  This may be simple misogyny. (Why else would the Firefighters Union refuse to endorse Harris after endorsing Biden?)

Predictably Harris-Walz are campaigning hard towards the “center” on immigration and military policy, while Trump-Vance are doubling down on spreading canards about Haitians eating your family pets, and announcing plans for mass deportations of migrants and refugees.

It is not likely that the electoral results will be clear before January 2025. A core problem for Democrats is that its candidates not only have to win a majority in the Electoral College, but must do so by wide enough margins that the corrupt pro-Trump Supreme Court majority cannot throw contested elections to Trump.

Most of the sane US Left are increasingly aware that the imperfect US democracy must be defended against the MAGA threat in November and the ensuing months.  Most progressive organizations and unions are trying to mobilize their memberships to canvass, phone bank and write postcards to voters in the swing states.  DSA is divided, with some ideologically ultra -left caucuses asserting that the election does not matter to socialists, while many individual members of DSA are participating in the electoral mobilizations of progressives.  The most pragmatic DSA caucuses have created a campaign called “Socialism Beats Fascism” which is using webinars and social media to mobilize for down ballot elections and referenda in the swing states.  DSA’s National Elections Commission is organizing phone banks for down ballot DSA candidates in Georgia and Michigan, which should have the practical impact of fighting MAGA while skirting the internal challenges of DSA endorsing the national Democratic ticket (which would probably not be welcomed by the Democrats).

One month ahead of the November election I will venture a guess. The Democrats should win a slender majority in the national House of Representatives, while the Republicans may eke out a slight majority in the Senate. Harris-Walz will win enough of the swing states to achieve the 270 electoral votes needed to win a majority of the Electoral College.  I think this will happen not because of any major ideological shift, but because women will defend their reproductive freedoms, and because Trump is becoming increasingly weird on the campaign trail – even more rambling, incoherent and forgetful than before.

However, Trump will not concede the election, and will try every legal and illegal means to usurp power in January 2025. The ensuing chaos may be greater than in January 2021.  Nevertheless, the US military high command and national security apparatus is not likely to intervene in support of a MAGA semi-coup even if legitimated by a Supreme Court majority. But a national U S government capable of effectively addressing the urgent underlying national and global challenges may not emerge from these elections.

I think that the U S will emerge from the November elections with Trump and the MAGA movement stymied, but without a clear progressive mandate. This requires no crystal ball.  The Republican Party remains the tool of an amoral solipsistic demagogue who is pursuing his personal interests – mainly staying out of prison – with no fixed general political principles.  Vance is a younger smoother scion of this MAGA cult who dangerously may believe in the ultra-reactionary program of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.  On the other hand, the Democratic Party, though its Convention celebrated cultural unity and extricated itself from a failing Biden presidential bid, still lacks a coherent political program capable of unifying the diverse working and middle classes into a governing bloc.  And the U S Left remains too fragmented and/or mesmerized by illusions of a Leninist messiah to provide a backbone for a new majority democratic left coalition.  But in the short run at least, I think we will muddle though another four years with most of our democratic rights and constitutional framework intact.